Revision dated September 11, 2016: Rotislav Ischenko’s “Time Is Running Out For Pax Americana’s Apologists” English version was published on November 11, 2015 in the Oriental Review. It recommended that the United States should promptly execute a “soft-landing” of its debt-laden economy. Mr. Ischenko stated that sometime in 2016 would be the latest that a US “soft-landing” would be practical. After 2016, a total collapse of the US economy was inevitable. He did not elaborate on whether Russia and/or China or whether some other exogenous event would trigger this collapse. In my opinion, we need to look at the current, continuing slow collapse of the global economy, the change of the very long-term interest rate cycles to a long-term rise, and for a collapse of the US dollar as the triggering mechanism for a US economic collapse. Nenner in December 2015 provided such a long term interest rate cycle chart and a commentary. The chart showed that historically interest rates follow a 1000-year cycle and are now in forming a long-term bottom. Nenner’s commentary: “…… we show the long term US Bond Yield chart which is bottoming. It is interesting to see how regular the cycle is. It is clear that we are soon starting a period that will lead to very high rates.” Mr. Ischenko provides dire conclusions regarding the future of the United States.
Revision dated July 24, 2016: Should we look at the Henry Kissinger visit, discussed later in this post, with Vladimir Putin in a different light? Did Henry Kissinger present to Putin a Rockefeller strategy which embraced the candidacy of Donald Trump, and through Trump’s victory, a reset of US monetary policies and a reset of US relations with both Russia and China? Has Ischenko’s Pax Americana threat been revised accordingly?
Introductory Explanation: The following essay was posted February 8, 2016 on this website. On Friday, March 4, 2016, the Russian website OrientalReview.org posted “Hybrid Wars 1. The Law of Hybrid Warfare” by Andrew Korybko. Three further parts will be published on subsequent Fridays. The series is based on Mr. Korybko’s book: “Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach to Regime Change”. (The book is available as a Kindle edition.) Just reading OrientalReviews introduction and the first paragraph of Mr. Korybko’s essay, it became clear that my February 8, 2016 essay depicted Russia’s Hybrid War on the United States, and that the title should be accordingly revised.
OrientalReview’sintroduction and the first paragraph of Mr. Korybko’s essay follows:
“Oriental Review is very happy to announce that we will be regularly publishing Andrew Korybko’s latest research on Hybrid Wars. Building off of the strategies that he described in last year’s book of the same name, Andrew has conceptualized a new paradigm for understanding international relations and invented an accompanying methodology for testing it. The “Law Of Hybrid War”, the name of his newest series, states that:
The grand objective behind every Hybrid War is to disrupt multipolar transnational connective projects through externally provoked identity conflicts (ethnic, religious, regional, political, etc.) within a targeted transit state.
Russia’s Eurasian integration objectives and China’s Silk Road projects are the targets of the US’ global Hybrid War strategy, and this accordingly opens up a wide range of geographic battlefields. Andrew examines the Greater Heartland, the Balkans, ASEAN, transoceanic Africa, and Latin America in identifying the vulnerabilities that each of the relevant transit states has to this revolutionary type of asymmetrical warfare.
His unique methodology incorporates the variables of ethnicity, religion, history, administrative boundaries, physical geography, and socio-economic disparity in crafting comprehensive analyses that demonstrate each country’s Hybrid War weaknesses. The objective of the work is to illustrate the means that the US could predictably employ in destabilizing these targeted states, thereby giving decision makers and the public advance notice so that they can be better prepared to deal with certain preplanned scenarios as they arise.
Please visit us to follow the updates of the “Hybrid Wars” series due to be released every Friday starting today.
The Law Of Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid War is one of the most significant strategic developments that the US has ever spearheaded, and the transitioning of Color Revolutions to Unconventional Wars is expected to dominate the destabilizing trends of the coming decades. Those unaccustomed to approaching geopolitics from the Hybrid War perspective might struggle to understand where the next ones might occur, but it’s actually not that difficult to identify the regions and countries most at risk of falling victim to this new form of aggression. The key to the forecast is in accepting that Hybrid Wars are externally provoked asymmetrical conflicts predicated on sabotaging concrete geo-economic interests, and proceeding from this starting point, it’s relatively easy to pinpoint where they might strike next.”
The February 8, 2016 essay:
Rotislav Ischenko, President of Centre for System Analysis and Forecasting (Kiev) currently living in Moscow, wrote an article entitled “Time Is Running Out For Pax Americana’s Apologists” which was published in the Oriental Review on November 11, 2015.(http://orientalreview.org/2015/11/11/time-is-running-out-for-pax-americanas-apologists/) Mr. Ischenko stated:
“The paradox of the current global crisis is that for the last five years, all relatively responsible and independent nations have made tremendous efforts to save the United States from the financial, economic, military, and political disaster that looms ahead. And this is all despite Washington’s equally systematic moves to destabilize the world order, rightly known as the Pax Americana.”
Mr. Ischenko states that “A crisis erupts within any system when there is a discrepancy between its internal structure and the sum total of available resources (that is, those resources will eventually prove inadequate for the system to function normally and in the usual way). And, that the system is faced with three options: reform, collapse, or through preservation. He states, as quoted above, that the United States has ignored for the last five years facing up to the fact that it no longer has the “financial, economic, military, and political” resources to be the world’s hegemon, and the “Russian-Chinese approach has made a point of offering Washington a compromise option that endorses the gradual, evolutionary erosion of American hegemony, plus the incremental reform of international financial, economic, military, and political relations on the basis of the existing system of international law.”
Mr. Ischenko concludes his open letter as follows: “But the US needs to think fast. Their resources are shrinking much faster than the authors of the plan for imperial preservation had expected. To their loss of control over the BRICS countries can be added the incipient, but still fairly rapid loss of control over EU policy as well as the onset of geopolitical maneuvering among the monarchies of the Middle East. The financial and economic entities created and set in motion by the BRICS nations are developing in accordance with their own logic, and Moscow and Beijing are not able to delay their development overlong while waiting for the US to suddenly discover a capacity to negotiate.
The point of no return will pass once and for all sometime in 2016, and America’s elite will no longer be able to choose between the provisions of compromise and collapse. The only thing that they will then be able to do is to slam the door loudly, trying to drag the rest of the world after them into the abyss.”
From December 13, 2013, the Accumulation/Distribution line for the SPDR Gold Trust Shares (GLD) on the NYSE has been advancing in a positive manner. The GLD (SPDR Gold Trust Shares) price has continued trending down along a trend line that goes back to October 1, 2012, and in late January 2016 broke through to the up-side.. Clearly, a divergence between price and accumulation. This divergence between strong accumulation and never-ending lower prices is un-explainable. All of this can be seen on the GLD price chart shown in the link: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p11244689691&a=444655238
Oriental Review published Grandmaster Putin’s Trap written by Dmitri Kalinichenko ( http://orientalreview.org/2014/12/25/grandmaster-putins-trap/ ) on December 25, 2014, and, which is, referenced in Rotislav Ischenko’s Time Is Running Out For Pax Americana’s Apologists. One year before the English translation date, the “smart money” began its accumulation. This group, with its superior intelligence gathering, was aware of what Russia and China were doing relative to selling their dollars received from trade for gold and were purchasing gold via the GLD ETF.
Grandmaster Putin’s Trap states:
“Thus, the Western world, built on the hegemony of the petrodollar, is in a catastrophic situation. In which it cannot survive without oil and gas supplies from Russia. And Russia is now ready to sell its oil and gas to the West only in exchange for physical gold! The twist of Putin’s game is that the mechanism for the sale of Russian energy to the West only for gold now works regardless of whether the West agrees to pay for Russian oil and gas with its artificially cheap gold, or not.
Because Russia, having a regular flow of dollars from the sale of oil and gas, in any case, will be able to convert them to gold with current gold prices, depressed by all means by the West. That is, at the price of gold, which had been artificially and meticulously lowered by the Fed and ESF many times, against artificially inflated purchasing power of the dollar through market manipulation.
Interesting fact: the suppression of gold prices by the special department of US Government – ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) – with the aim of stabilizing the dollar has been made into a law in the United States.
In the financial world it is accepted as a given that gold is an antidollar.
- In 1971, US President Richard Nixon closed the ‘gold window’, ending the free exchange of dollars for gold, guaranteed by the US in 1944 at Bretton Woods.
- In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reopened the ‘gold window’, without asking Washington’s permission.
Right now the West spends much of its efforts and resources to suppress the prices of gold and oil. Thereby, on the one hand to distort the existing economic reality in favor of the US dollar and on the other hand, to destroy the Russian economy, refusing to play the role of obedient vassal of the West.
Today assets such as gold and oil look proportionally weakened and excessively undervalued against the US dollar. It is a consequence of the enormous economic effort on the part of the West.
And now Putin sells Russian energy resources in exchange for these US dollars, artificially propped by the efforts of the West. With which he immediately buys gold, artificially devalued against the U.S. dollar by the efforts of the West itself!”
Grandmaster Putin’s Trap summarizes as follows:
“The Western economic establishment can see and understand the essence of the situation. Leading Western economists are certainly aware of the severity of the predicament and hopelessness of the situation the Western world finds itself in, in Putin’s economic gold trap. After all, since the Bretton Woods agreements, we all know the Golden rule: “Who has more gold sets the rules.” But everyone in the West is silent about it. Silent because no one knows now how to get out of this situation.
If you explain to the Western public all the details of the looming economic disaster, the public will ask the supporters of a petrodollar world the most terrible questions, which will sound like this:
How long will the West be able to buy oil and gas from Russia in exchange for physical gold?
And what will happen to the US petrodollar after the West runs out of physical gold to pay for Russian oil, gas and uranium, as well as to pay for Chinese goods?
No one in the West today can answer these seemingly simple questions.
And this is called “Checkmate”, ladies and gentlemen. The game is over.”
Henry Kissinger’s recent visit with President Putin appears to be round 1 of the Rockefeller interests to find a Russian-US compromise as a response to Ischenko’s Time Is Running Out For Pax Americana. It’s likely a non-starter since Kissinger’s approach for a New World Order was more a United States-Russian partnership with the United States as the senior partner and Russia a junior partner.
If so, we can look forward to a U.S. economic collapse in 2016.